Chalk

Since the conclusion of the first two rounds of the NCAA men's tournament, ESPN and other sports outlets have been criticizing this year's tournament for having "too much chalk." They say that the lack of a "Cinderella team" has hurt the Big Dance. But is that really so? Let's take a look.

Of the 32 first round games, 10, nearly a third, ended with the lower seed upending the higher seed. While some of these 8/9 or 7/10 matchups may not be considered true upsets, the 10 upsets in the first round can be compared to the 8 in 2008 and only 5 in 2007. I admit that this tournament will probably lack the low-seed making it to the Elite Eight or Final Four like Davidson last year or George Mason in 2006, but isn't 12 seeded Arizona still in this tournament? Maybe we should wait until their game against Louisville is over, because I guarantee you, it will be close. Plus, 12 seeded Western Kentucky nearly beat Gonzaga last weekend. We were 0.9 seconds and one missed last-ditch layup away from possibly not even having this conversation. So let's just wait this one out. With that being said, I'm running out of time before the games start, so here are my sweet 16 picks:

CONNECTICUT over Purdue
Purdue is a good team. The Boilermakers have had a nice little run, holding off a determined Northern Iowa squad, and upsetting a 4-seeded Washington Huskies team. But that run ends here.

There's reasons to doubt UConn. Before the tournament started, the Huskies lost their regular-season finale against in Pittsburgh, and then dropped their first game of the Big East Tournament in New York to Syracuse, in that epic six-overtime thriller. But Hasheem Thabeet and his fellow Huskies were 2-0 in the regular season against Big Ten opponents, handily defeating Wisconsin and Michigan by a combined margin of 27 points. With the Huskies fresh off of two blowouts against Chattanooga and Texas A&M, they should be able to down Purdue without a single bitten fingernail of the UConn faithful.

PITTSBURGH over Xavier
Not only did I have Florida State playing this game against Pitt, I had Portland State upsetting Xavier in the first round in my bracket. This proves two things, I think. 1) I'm and idiot, and 2) Maybe Xavier's a little better than I thought. When I did my research to fill out what would turn out to be a terrible bracket, I looked at Xavier's schedule and didn't really see any standout wins. Memphis and Missouri were decent victories, depending on who you ask, but both of those came in November. So I switched into "What Have You Done for Me Lately?" mode and saw those ugly losses to Dayton, Duquesne, Charlotte, Richmond, and Temple, and pounced on the opportunity to pick a bold upset. However, looking closer, this is a talented team. BJ Raymond, Derrick Brown, and CJ Anderson are all averaging 10+ pts a game. They'll need all three to show up to have a prayer against the Panthers, and in the end, I think Pitt will hold on. But, especially if Blair finds himself in foul trouble, this might be closer than most think.

MEMPHIS over Missouri
I hate Memphis. I really do. I've preached that they are overrated all season, playing that Conference USA schedule, with no wins against ranked teams. None. However I'm still not sold on Missouri. The Big 12 isn't very strong either. Plus, with losses to Baylor, Nebraska, and Kansas State, Missouri looks pretty beatable. And while I HATE Memphis, they can shoot all day, which is how they salvaged that game against Cal State Northridge. You might say Memphis is good and I'm just stubborn. You might be right.

VILLANOVA over Duke
I picked Duke over Nova in my bracket, but the more I look at this matchup, the more I like the Wildcats. It really depends on which Villanova shows up. At this point in the season, we've come to expect what Duke's gonna give us. Singler, Henderson, and Scheyer are relatively consistent from the field and from behind the arc. But Nova is just so streaky. When they are on, and when Scottie Reynolds is producing, the Wildcats are a top tier team and can run with anyone. But if they go cold, they are terrible. Just painful to watch. They've shown the capability to beat the best when they beat Pitt as the number one team in the nation, but this is a tough call. In the end, I think Nova shows up and takes it.

LOUISVILLE over Arizona
Another top seed scare in this one, I think. Arizona is dangerous, and Jordan Hill is a beast. If you're a Bill Simmons reader, Arizona is chock full of "Nobody Believed in Us" potential. The message is the same to L'ville as it is to Pitt: be careful. But I do love Louisville, and it's weird that looking back on my bracket there's so many games that I think I must have been writing in left-handed, with the right hand holding my crack pipe, yet I still love my UNC over Louisville championship pick. And yes, this is the part where Zona and Zaga take both their opponents and whatever dignity I have left.

KANSAS over Michigan State
I changed this pick about 35 times before hitting the publish button. This is tough, I think of any Big Ten team, the Spartans are the closest any of them get to being the real deal. Michigan State has looked incredible at times. Sometimes I think Kalin Lucas is just a star, and can take down a team like the defending champ Jayhawks. In the end though, I think the confidence and athleticism of Kansas will be what gets them to the Elite Eight. This is the pick I feel least confident about.

NORTH CAROLINA over Gonzaga
UNC is still my champion. As much as I dislike them, this team, Lawson and Hansbrough specifically, is on a mission. That final four loss to Kansas last year didn't sit well with the Tar Heels, and their experience, tenacity and skill will get them there this year. Gonzaga can be frisky at times, but I doubt they have what it takes to run with this team, at least as a second half winds down. Love UNC here.

SYRACUSE over Oklahoma
This shouldn't count as an upset, I think Cuse is the favorite here. They've been conditioned well this season in what I now think can be safely called college basketball's toughest conference. Sure that six-OT game against UConn was tiring, but wasn't it the ultimate gut check? If they can run with the big boys that long, and do what they did in the SIXTH overtime, especially with the shallow bench they're working with, what can't they do? They have leadership from Jonny Flynn, and decent shooting from Dievendorf and Rautins. I love the orange here, and if it plays out this way, I'll be nervous for these guys to nail the coffin shut on my bracket by possibly upending North Carolina.

I love March Madness.